Data-driven heating program for the district with the Multi-Factor Analysis

With the Multi-Factor Analysis (MFA) you will work together on the substantiated and balanced heating program for residents in the neighborhood based on current data. But what is an MFA and what are the advantages of working with this method?

Heat program for residents in the neighborhood
Many factors play a role when putting together a heating program for residents in the neighborhood: technical, financial, social, environmental and legal.

To make a well-considered and balanced choice, we use a MFA. This method helps us to systematically weigh all relevant criteria and select the best option. With this method the process becomes transparent, flexible and gives everyone involved a role.

What does working with the MFA mean?

1. Determine objectives and criteria
   First of all, we set clear objectives, such as CO₂ reduction, affordability for residents, security of supply, social support and technical feasibility. We formulate measurable criteria for each goal. For example: how much CO₂ is saved compared to gas? What are the investment and operational costs? How big is the support among residents?
   
   
2. Collecting and structuring data
   We collect both quantitative and qualitative data. We obtain quantitative data, such as energy consumption, cost estimates and CO₂ emissions, from municipal databases, heat atlases and feasibility studies. We obtain qualitative information, such as the opinions of residents and experiences from other projects, through surveys, participation processes and expert opinions.
   
   
3. Assign weights to criteria
   Not all criteria are equally important. We therefore determine how much each criterion weighs in the decision. This can be done through expert assessment, stakeholder consultation or political considerations. For example: if CO₂ reduction is a high priority, this criterion can be given a weight of 30%, while affordability has a weight of 25%.
   
   
4. Scoring options per criterion
   We evaluate various options for heat supply, such as geothermal energy, residual heat from industry or collective heat pumps. Each option is given a score per criterion. For example: geothermal scores high on CO₂ reduction, but lower on affordability.
   
   
5. Perform MFA
   We then multiply the scores per criterion by the associated weights and add up the results. This gives a total score per option. The option with the highest score is often the most balanced choice.
   
   
6. Analyze and interpret results
   We compare the total scores and perform a sensitivity analysis: what happens if certain weights or scores change? We also look at risks, such as price increases or delays.
   
   
7. Make a well-considered choice and draw up a program
   Finally, we choose the option that scores best, but we take into account practical considerations such as support and financing. We communicate transparently about the considerations and draw up a concrete heating program with phasing, responsibilities and monitoring.

Would you like to know more about the benefits of using the MFA with current data?

Please contact Aart van der Vlist, aart@sblc.nl